Putin's Offensive Campaign. Info

[UTE042_NZ]

I can't help but wonder if the Ukrainians used a kamikazi drone with shaped a charge and were trying to take out a span of the railway bridge. I have read they have recently been shooting down incoming (Iranian?) kamikazi drones that the Russians have using been to try to target their artillery and infantry units with. Perhaps this Kersh Bridge strike was a retaliation that resulted in a near miss. May have been triggered half a second too early and or been ligned up too close to that sooty support instead of center of the span.

Maybe the road bridge was collateral damage and they were really after the rail bridge, centre of the span to left of red circle?
If so, I wish them better luck next time.

 

[Immortality]

It sure is interesting, best guess is an explosion from below but still unknown what/how but what ever it was it packed a big bang.

Apparently a airbase in Russia was kit with a suicide drone a few days ago so it might just be possible that Ukraine might have managed to repurpose Iranian drones.

 

[Ginger Beer]

That was a large "bang", for that much damage it wasn't a drone

I guestimate a improvised large HE with thermobaric air fuel type of explosive of at least a few tonnes

 

[Immortality]

Agreed, the evidence is probably laying on the bottom of the ocean just below the bridge span with the shape of a demolished boat hull.

 

[UTE042_NZ]

Um, it's Russia that has had to resort to using smuggled Iranian drones. Ukraine has better suppliers. Turkey, Europe, USA.

A small mention in some reading info here ...

Institute for the Study of War

Russia’s use of Iranian-made drones is not generating asymmetric effects the way the Ukrainian use of US-provided HIMARS systems has done and is unlikely to affect the course of the war significantly. The deputy chief of the Main Operational Department o

understandingwar.org

 

[UTE042_NZ]

Could it have been an American supplied HIMARS?

"On 30 August, 2022, The Washington Post reported on Ukrainian claims to have successfully used decoy HIMARS units made out of wood to draw at least 10 Russian 3M-54 Kalibr cruise missiles. One US diplomat was reported to state that Russian sources had claimed more HIMARS destroyed than the US had sent. A Pentagon official had earlier in the month asserted that no HIMARS had been destroyed at that time."

On 8 September, US General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters: "We are seeing real and measurable gains from Ukraine in the use of these systems. For example, the Ukrainians have struck over 400 targets with the HIMARS and they've had devastating effect"

"A further 18 HIMARS were announced on 28 September, however it was part of an aid package aimed at meeting Ukraine's mid- and long-term needs, so deliveries would begin in six months at the earliest. Ukraine had previously been provided with only M31 Unitary Warhead missiles, which are "not ideal against targets spread over large areas, as the deadly chunks are not designed to fly far." As of early October they have been granted the M30A1 which uses the Alternative Warhead that can cover up to "half a square mile of land in a single salvo" with nearly 200,000 tungsten ball bearings. The US also announced on 4 October that four more HIMARS launchers would be provided from US military stockpiles, bringing the total to 20 HIMARS in Ukrainian service.

An M57E1 would have the range if launched from somewhere near Mala Tokmachka.

 

[Jolls]

Bottom line up front - this was caused by a vehicle borne improvised explosive device (VBIED).

I have some experience in this field so thought I would give you my 2 cents worth. There is limited information to go from and I'm sitting in an armchair as opposed to being on site so I could be wrong. It would not take long on site with a couple of presumptive tests to determine what occurred.

Rudimentary (arm chair) post blast analysis shows the blast emanated on the collapsed section of the road and was parallel to the roadway. The seat of the blast was on the collapsed section adjacent to the depressed and discoloured roadway (see pic 1) . The blast was also directional in nature (right to left in the photograph) based on the guard rail damage projecting forward of the blast seat. This is a clear indicator that the explosive was moving at the time of detonation.

So in my view we can rule out the use of:

• a maritime attack. The depression of the metal structures indicates the seat of the blast was above the road surface.
• conventional munitions. The damage would need to be to the full width of the roadway to be effective. Conventional munitions create jagged and clearly defined extremities. In this case the collapsed roadway is like a ribbon. The explosive residue on the un-collapsed lanes also does not support this method of attack (see next point).
• military or commercial grade explosives. Military and commercial grade explosives optimise the fuel to oxidiser ratio resulting in very little, if any, unburnt fuel. The large area of discoloruation is indicative of "overfueling" which is a typical by-poduct of home made explosives (HME). The fact that it is on the surface of the roadway alsodiscounts the bottom attack theory.
• a shaped charge. A shaped charge creates a molten slug that is both focussed and projected. It would need to be the full width of the roadway and pointed downwards to be effective. There is no evidence to support its use and it would be difficult to build and even more diffcult to successfully time the detonation (get it in the right place to be effective). For mine - imply too hard.
• high explosives. High explosives are shattering charges and to be effective should be place in direct contact with the target to transmit the shock to shatter the concrete or cut steel. Sure you can use a heap of it to achieve a mass effect but it is expensive and better suited to other things.

So it is likely that this is a classic VBIED. It was possibly suicide operated; however, could have been detonated by remote control. The driver may have unwittingly picked up and transported the device to the target. The most likely explosive - a home made ammonium nitrate fuel oil mix (the blackened blast seat is a good indicator) - probably a full container of it.

I'll give them 9/10 for planning but only 6/10 for execution as I think they missed the real opportunity. The best place to attack the bridge is at the suspended section as it is the largest span and supports both road carriageways. Even if both carriageways weren't destroyed the damage to the suspended structure would have made it impossible to traffic (well extremely risky - they are crazy Russians). Perhaps it was the target and the train was an opportunity that they thought would be a great two in one.

Cheers n Beers
Jolls

 

[Immortality]

.... and true to form, Pootin strikes a civilian building in retaliation!

'A terrorist act': Putin's reprisal for bridge explosion strikes apartment block

High-rise residential building collapses under barrage of six Russian missiles.

www.nzherald.co.nz

 

[Fu Manchu]

BBC posted a video that shows something appear under the bridge at the time of the explosion.

Crimean bridge: Who - or what - caused the explosion? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63192757

 

[Fu Manchu]

From the BBC video showing this object appear and then a frame later… boom.